Well, the past couple of weeks have certainly been interesting. The Arab Revolutions were initially touted as an all-encompassing, democratic overthrow of long-entrenched autocratic leaders; which would stop at nothing, nowhere and at no government in the region. However, it would soon seem to all change with Libya; and Gaddafi’s surprising skill at holding on to power, only aided by the shift of international attention towards Japan. And now, with the UN and Co. finally reaching the point of decision-making, future support for the rebels may turn this into a stalemate or civil war.
For Gaddafi, the UN’s approval of airstrikes may have come as a surprise. It seems that his strategy was to, at a steady pace, remove the rebels from the west, proceeding eastwards, allowing each of his victories to dent their morale and allow for further, increasingly easy, victories in the east. Indeed, some public American and Western support for the rebels would have probably aided him more than the rebels. With the current ‘coalition’ mobilising, the major problem for Gaddafi is taking Benghazi before intervention arrives. Failing this, the rebellion – with foreign support – is likely to swell and gain stronger leadership. If this occurs, the rebels will either rapidly remove Gaddafi (if the support is substantial); but I think more likely, the support will allow the rebels to create a stalemate and secure the east for themselves.
And if Gaddafi survives in this stalemate or defeats the rebels, he will be forced to continue moving away from his support for counter-terrorism and practical pro-Western policy. This will mean also about-facing in regard to Islamists; unless he wants to do the impossible at stand against both the West and its only regional enemy. This will mean we’ll see something akin to Syria, where secular governments endorse (and are endorsed by) Islamists. And this is where there is relevance for us: an anti-Western, pro-Islamist dictator is to be endorsed; especially if this takes him into concert with Iran.
But then again, Gaddafi is aged and it will really depend on the succession as to Libya’s long-term future if Gaddafi defeats the rebels. It still seems awhile off before anything of historical significance happens in the region; as the power struggles in Tunisia and Egypt are yet to be decided, the minor protests in the other Arab states are petering out, and Iran is still waiting to see if it has any new opportunities. And Israel seems to be in no way fearful; as it escalates settlement in Palestine, despite a lot of claims that it fears for its very existence.
Yes, if Australia, Britain, US, and France straight away declare war on Libya, as they have all just done, in support of the “pro-democracy rebels”, you know straight away that Israel and international banking have declared it so. Australia, Britain, US and France, are the main ziobot slave states of Jewry, so if they are going after Gaddafi then they have been instructed to so by their Masters.
Question: How many ziobot $’s would it cost to purchase a “revolution” in a north African country with an aging dictator and a half-baked son at the helm?
Answer: A lot less than all of Lybia’s oil reserves.